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Guide Origin: Official | ArcKit Version: [VERSION]
/arckit:wardley.climate assesses 32 climatic patterns affecting mapped components.
When to Use
Run this command after creating a Wardley Map to understand the external forces acting on your components. Climate patterns are the rules of the game -- they apply regardless of your strategy. Understanding them lets you anticipate change, identify inertia, and choose gameplay that works with (not against) external forces.
Inputs
| Artefact | Purpose |
|---|---|
Wardley Map (ARC-<id>-WARD-*.md) |
Mandatory -- Map whose components are assessed for climatic forces |
Requirements (ARC-<id>-REQ-v1.0.md) |
Recommended -- Business context for impact assessment |
Research findings (ARC-<id>-RSCH-*.md) |
Recommended -- Market data to validate pattern detection |
Command
/arckit:wardley.climate Assess climate for <initiative>
Output: projects/<id>/wardley-maps/ARC-<id>-WCLM-<NNN>-v1.0.md (uses multi-instance numbering)
Climate Assessment Structure
| Section | Contents |
|---|---|
| Map Context | Summary of the Wardley Map being assessed |
| Pattern Assessment | 32 climatic patterns evaluated against components |
| Category Summary | Aggregated assessment across 6 pattern categories |
| Peace/War/Wonder Cycle | Current cycle phase and implications |
| Inertia Assessment | Components and organizations resisting change |
| Prediction Horizons | What can be predicted and with what confidence |
| Strategic Implications | How climate forces shape available strategies |
Key Concepts
32 Climatic Patterns Across 6 Categories
| Category | Example Patterns |
|---|---|
| Competition | Competitors will copy successful plays, most competitors have poor situational awareness |
| Components | Everything evolves through supply and demand competition, characteristics change as components evolve |
| Financial | Higher-order systems create new sources of value, capital flows to new areas of value |
| Speed | Evolution does not respect corporate boundaries, no single method fits all |
| Prediction | Not everything is predictable, you can predict the direction of evolution |
| Ecosystem | Efficiency enables innovation, evolution of one component affects others |
Peace / War / Wonder Cycle
The evolution of components follows a repeating cycle:
| Phase | Characteristics |
|---|---|
| Peace | Stable product competition, incremental improvement, predictable |
| War | Commodity transition, disruption, rapid change, casualties |
| Wonder | New genesis components emerge from commodity, novel value created |
Identifying which phase each component is in reveals whether stability or disruption is imminent.
Inertia Assessment
Inertia is resistance to change. Climate assessment identifies:
- Component inertia -- Technology or practices that resist evolution
- Organizational inertia -- Cultural resistance, sunk cost, existing contracts
- Market inertia -- Vendor lock-in, switching costs, standards
Prediction Horizons
Not all climate effects are equally predictable:
| Horizon | Confidence |
|---|---|
| Direction of evolution | High -- components always evolve toward commodity |
| Timing of evolution | Medium -- depends on competition and market forces |
| Specific disruptions | Low -- individual events are unpredictable |
Workflow
| Phase | Key Activities | ArcKit Commands |
|---|---|---|
| Mapping | Create Wardley Map | /arckit:wardley |
| Climate | Assess external forces | /arckit:wardley.climate |
| Gameplay | Identify strategic plays | /arckit:wardley.gameplay |
| Strategy | Synthesise into strategy | /arckit:strategy, /arckit:roadmap |
Review Checklist
- All 32 climatic patterns assessed against map components.
- Peace/War/Wonder phase identified for each key component.
- Inertia sources documented with severity.
- Prediction horizons are realistic (not overconfident).
- Strategic implications link back to specific components.
- Assessment is evidence-based, not speculative.
Tips
- Climate before gameplay -- Climate constrains which plays are viable. Always assess climate first.
- Look for war signals -- Components approaching commodity transition are the highest-risk, highest-opportunity areas.
- Challenge inertia -- Organizational inertia is often the hardest to overcome. Name it explicitly.
- Update with the map -- Climate assessment is tied to a specific map version. When the map changes, re-assess.
- Use research data -- Market research (
/arckit:research) provides evidence for pattern detection. Do not assess climate in a vacuum.